Chapter 7
The Mathematics of Maybe: Introduction to Probability
CBSE Class 9
Mathematics Solutions
Educart Mathematics class Class 9 NCERT Exemplar cover
Question:

If I have rolled a 4 on a die 8 times in succession, the probability of rolling a 4 again is still only = 0.16 (assuming the die is fair). Probability does not tell you what will happen next but predicts what will happen in the long run.                                                                                                                                                                                                             [Page No. 163]

Answer: Verified

Even after eight 4s in a row, the chance of rolling a 4 on the next throw is still 16=0.166\frac{1}{6} = 0.166,

Because each roll is an independent event, the die has no memory of what came before. On every throw, the six faces remain equally likely, so the probability of any particular number, including 4, is always 16\frac{1}{6}, regardless of past results.

What probability really describes is the long run: over a very large number of rolls, each face turns up close to one-sixth of the time (this is the Law of Large Numbers). It does not predict the very next roll. So a run of eight 4s is unusual, but it makes a 4 neither more nor less likely on the next throw thinking that the die is now 'due' for a different number is the Gambler's Fallacy.

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